Alienated and Abandoned:

Why the war in Gaza may cost Democrats the election

By Alicia Alvarez, Victoria Canales-Torres, Elissa Mardiney, Benjamin Royer and Madhri Yehiya

August 7, 2024

President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris lost many Palestinian Americans’ support the moment the first U.S.-made bomb was dropped on Gaza in October.

Hudhayfah Ahmad, a Palestinian-American activist, felt that shift from the early days of Israel’s now 10-month-long war.

“In the first week after October 7, we lost 15 members of my extended family in a missile strike on their home in Gaza,” he said.

“If you were to ask Palestinians, ‘Would you rather your family be killed or be banned from the United States?’ I think that choice is immensely clear,” he said, referring to former President Donald Trump’s 2017 executive order known as the “Muslim travel ban.”

Ahmad is a national spokesperson for the Abandon Biden campaign, a Michigan-based organization that advocates for voters to support candidates who align with their values at the end of the day.

The goals of the movement, which began days after the start of Israel’s war in Gaza, remain largely unchanged despite President Biden being replaced by Vice President Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee.

“Think of Abandon Biden as more than just abandoning Joe Biden himself but abandoning the legacy and the infrastructure able and capable for Joe Biden to do everything he has done in the last nine months,” Ahmad explained. “The focus is on inspiring people to vote with their conscience, not to vote based on any fear-mongering tactics that they may be exposed to. What that ends up leading to, we don't know. Maybe it'll lead to the dissolution of the two-party system.”

In an election where abortion rights, immigration and gay marriage are back on the table, along with concerns about the future of American democracy and an ever-conservative U.S. Supreme Court, these voters draw the line at the ongoing war. As of late July, the Gaza Health Ministry estimates nearly 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in the last 10 months. The U.S. provided $12.5 billion in military aid to Israel in the same timeframe.

The Uncommitted National Movement is one of the largest anti-war political movements connected to the 2024 presidential election, organizing across the nation before the start of Democratic Party primaries. Its largest sectors are in swing states such as Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

More than 100,000 Michigan residents voted “Uncommitted” during the Democratic primaries. In Wisconsin, the uninstructed vote — the state's equivalent — tallied more than twice as many votes by which Biden defeated former President Trump in the 2020 election. Minnesota — the state in which Harris' vice presidential pick Tim Walz serves as governor — saw almost 19% of Democratic primary voters check uncommitted.

In total, 30 uncommitted delegates will attend the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on Aug. 19, representing the voters who would not cast ballots for the sitting president during the primaries.

The U.S.’s military support of the war came as a "tipping point" for many progressive voters, according to policy analyst Halah Ahmad, who bears no relation to Hudhayfah Ahmad.

Halah Ahmad noted how some Democrats were already unhappy when Biden failed to deliver on promises of expanding student loan forgiveness and refugee asylum, as well as neglecting to disband the 287(g) program that allows local law enforcement to act as ICE authorities.

“When you look at who is it that has been behind these campaigns and supporting these protest vote efforts, it’s the progressive Democratic base that won Biden the election in 2020,” Halah Ahmad said. “It sort of crosses the line for a lot of folks to say, ‘You know what? That’s it. It’s not just policy failure, it’s complete moral misalignment,’ and I think that that’s what the real threat is.”

As an analyst for Al-Shabaka, an independent think tank focused on Palestinian scholarship based in Washington, D.C., Halah Ahmad noted that national polls underestimating the importance of the war to voters can be “willfully misguided.”

“In each of the five [swing] states, it's likely that less than 10 percent of the vote will determine the election.”

— Halah Ahmad, Al-Shabaka analyst

A poll that I worked on found that two in five [Democrat and Independent] voters in several swing states say that a permanent ceasefire, conditions on military aid and more humanitarian aid to Gaza are a set of the minimum policy changes they would need to see to secure or solidify their vote in November,” she said. “In each of the five [swing] states, it's likely that less than 10 percent of the vote will determine the election.”

Halah Ahmad said accurate predictions can only be made by polling on a state-by-state level, as well as observing how Kamala Harris is currently performing there.

Halah Ahmad and Hudhayfah Ahmad are just two members of a wider left-wing movement directing attention toward the Biden administration's response to the Israel-Hamas War and ongoing violence in Gaza.

"Let's say of all these people who said that they support these policies, only a small, tiny portion of them make it their voting issue,” said Halah Ahmad, who was also an organizer at Listen to Wisconsin, a chapter of the Uncommitted Movement. “That still may matter to the election as a determining issue because of a few reasons. One, because the margin is so small, but also because this is one of the issues that is a sort of tipping point for a string of progressive voters."

Harris’ upstart presidential campaign faced one of its first tests – reacting to the Israel-Gaza War – responding to pro-Palestinian protests in Washington, D.C. when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke to a joint session of U.S. Congress on July 24.

After meeting with Netanyahu, Harris said in a press briefing she told the Israeli leader she would not be silent over the suffering in Gaza — a sharp contrast to Biden’s previous statements on the war.

The hope Gabriela Santiago-Romero, a Detroit City councilwoman, first felt after Harris’ comments soon turned out to feel like more of the same rhetoric: advocating for Netanyahu to agree to a Biden-brokered ceasefire and hostage agreement, but nothing more. As a supporter of Listen to Michigan, the Uncommitted Movement’s Michigan chapter, she added she still hopes Harris can change course from Biden’s policies.

“The bombing has not stopped, and we have not stopped supplying them to [Israel],” Santiago-Romero said. “At this point, I am cautiously optimistic, but I have very little wiggle room. I think that she has an opportunity, a very slim chance, to prove herself to be different.”

Unlike the National Uncommitted Movement, which did not demand Biden drop out of the presidential race, the Abandon Biden campaign called for him to withdraw from running for re-election after he failed to push for a permanent ceasefire to Israel’s bombing campaign on Gaza following the Oct. 7 attacks.

Abandon Biden received its wish on July 21, when Biden announced he stepped down from the Democratic ticket and endorsed Harris to replace him. Hudhayfah Ahmad and the movement said they were glad to see Biden go, albeit not for the reasons they had hoped for.

While many Democrats are breathing a sigh of relief now that Kamala Harris may be the party’s nominee, the Abandon Biden movement is holding Harris to the same standard.

“[Harris] needs to call for and pressure an unconditional ceasefire in Gaza. A new candidate has to address these critical issues and break away from the destructive legacy of the current administration,” Hudhayfah Ahmad said in an interview days before Biden stepped down.

Both ceasefire-focused campaigns identify the perils of Trump’s anti-Muslim rhetoric and pro-Israel sentiment as at odds with its movements, but have zeroed in on the Democrats. Abandon Biden’s goal is to take a firm ideological stance, and vote only for a candidate who meets all of the movement's demands, Hudhayfah Ahmad said.

To Abandon Biden, there is no “lesser evil” candidate, Hudhayfah Ahmad said. Those who don’t meet their demands are all equally unacceptable.

Hudhayfah Ahmad said in a July 29 interview on the Bad Faith Podcast that the movement, which was at first directed toward Biden, has transformed into a wider initiative that encourages voting for candidates on the basis of shared values.

He added that the Abandon Biden movement, and Muslim-Americans as a whole, understand the threats Trump poses to their community.

“No one knows more about the dangers of Donald Trump than the people who have been on the receiving end of his policies and his rhetoric from 2015 onwards,” Hudhayfah Ahmad said.

The threat of Trump does not override Abandon Biden's demands for the Democratic party. In other words, their stance is clear: the movement is worth the risk of a Trump victory.

Ian Lustick, a political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania whose research focuses on Israel-Palestine conflict resolution, said the Democratic Party must recognize the ideological and generational change within the party's membership and strike a different tone on Israel to get voters – especially in Michigan – back on board.

He added that turnout from voters of color is not guaranteed in swing states. Their lack of votes could swing a state like Michigan toward Trump.

“There's very large numbers of Muslims and Arabs who may not be able to hold their noses… they may not vote at all,” Lustick said.

Where Votes Count the Most

In the 2020 election, Biden won Michigan by only 154,000 votes. During the primary election, more than 100,000 votes were uncommitted.

The state is home to the largest population of Arab Americans in the country at over 200,000.

“I don't see the movement dying at all,” Santiago-Romero said. “I see it growing. I see it getting even more intense.”

Lustick said the Democratic Party can and will reflect changing attitudes toward Israel within its base over time.

"There's a whole generational and cultural change in the party."

— Ian Lustick

UPenn political science professor emeritus

"There's a whole generational and cultural change in the party. It’s relying more and more on ways of thinking that don't accept the kind of old-fashioned image of Israel that Biden has," he said. "Kamala Harris would be much more ready to confront the Israelis directly."

Unlike organizations such as Abandon Biden, Not Another Bomb — a joint initiative connected to the Uncommitted Movement — is focused on pressuring the current administration between now and Inauguration Day. Its demands are the same as many pro-Palestinian protestors: a U.S. arms embargo on Israel and an immediate ceasefire.

"Regardless of how this plays out, [Biden-Harris] will be the administration that is in power through January of 2025," said Abbas Alawieh, an uncommitted delegate from Michigan. "We will stay focused and stay disciplined during this moment, focused on saving lives."

Alawieh spoke at a National Uncommitted Movement virtual event with over 400 attendees on July 22. By the end of the hour-long call, the organizers had raised over $15,000 to distribute among uncommitted delegates facing financial barriers to attending the Democratic National Convention in late August.

The Uncommitted Movement plans on sending a united ceasefire-now delegation to the Democratic National Convention, according to a report from Eman Abdelhadi, a contributor for In These Times, a progressive anti-war magazine.

The Uncommitted Movement has yet to confirm its plans for Chicago on Aug. 19. If they do choose to demonstrate or protest, they won’t be the first to do so at a Windy City-hosted DNC.

In 1968, anti-Vietnam War protests and the trial of the seven organizers inspired the 2020 film “The Trial of the Chicago 7” and, some say, contributed to the Democratic candidate Hubert Humphrey, losing the election to Republican Richard Nixon.

Alternatives Emerge Across Los Angeles

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Pro-Palestinian demonstrators gather at the Wilshire Federal Building on July 24.
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Two protestors cross Wilshire Boulevard while holding signs supporting pro-Palestinian causes.
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A protester, holding a small megaphone, leads fellow pro-Palestinian demonstrators with chants on July 24.
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Three pro-Palestinian demonstrators hold signs on Wilshire Bouelvard during a protest.
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Demonstrators display signs to passing cars on Wilshire Boulevard.

Eduardo 'Lalo' Vargas, a self-defined socialist who voted for Bernie Sanders in the 2016 primaries, was a leading voice of Los Angeles' anti-Biden movement.

After returning to Southern California from Ohio – where he attended Kenyon College – the Los Angeles Unified School District teacher ran for City Council District 14, which encompasses Lincoln Heights, the community he now lives in. Vargas saw firsthand how the economic insecurities he witnessed in his Latino-immigrant community through his youth, when he relied on the free and reduced lunch program, were the same in white, rural Ohio.

Along with fighting for economic equality, embracing the anti-Biden sentiment seen across swing states was a vital aspect of his campaign.

“We stood in solidarity with all of the communities who were organizing to either vote, uncommitted, or vote third party, basically anyone who understood that Biden only represents a continuation of the genocide against Palestinians,” Vargas said.

Following the conclusion of his CD-14 campaign – winning less than 5% of the vote – the 28-year-old supported students at UCLA and USC during Pro-Palestinian encampments and their eventual dispersals on both campuses.

He said his grassroots city council campaign — bolstered by young voters — attempted to spread the message about the U.S.’s link to Israel’s war in Gaza by taking inspiration from elsewhere in the country.

"We cannot keep giving up our leverage as voters and just continuing to support the Democrats or Joe Biden, when their policies and their administration has been the one that is responsible for the death of so many of our families."

— Eduardo Vargas,

Former Los Angeles City Council

CD-14 candidate

"For us, it was really important to recognize the efforts of the Arab American community in Michigan," he said. "To say that, 'Look, we cannot keep giving up our leverage as voters and just continuing to support the Democrats or Joe Biden, when their policies and their administration has been the one that is responsible for the death of so many of our families.'"

Vargas said in Los Angeles, in Harris’ home state, he found a more compelling option to voting uncommitted or not at all: voting third party. He supports the Party for Socialism and Liberation’s Claudia De la Cruz.

Vargas isn’t the only Los Angeles native who advocates for alternatives to the two-party options.

Estee Chandler, the founder of Jewish Voice for Peace's Los Angeles chapter, said as a Jewish voice, she needs to speak up in the face of Israel's actions in Gaza.

“As Jewish Americans, it's particularly abhorrent because many of us have ancestry that was affected by the Nazi Holocaust and the genocide of Jews," said Chandler, who is currently the board chair of JVP Action, the organization's social nonprofit wing. "Politicians and elected representatives need to catch up with their constituents. And we see that happening now because it is widely unpopular to be a part of this ongoing genocide."

While California is unlikely to flip from Democratic control, the anti-war movements of L.A. have rallied around three candidates: De la Cruz, the Green Party’s Jill Stein, and multi-party hopeful Jasmine Sherman — all of whom call for a permanent ceasefire and pro-Palestine measures.

Estee Chandler

Ian Lustick

Eduardo Vargas

A 24-year-old Jewish man who requested anonymity because of fear of retaliation from family and employers said he will vote third party in California, casting his ballot for Stein in 2024.

The recent double master's graduate from Columbia University, who previously considered himself "staunchly a Zionist," said he was all in on voting for Biden, even checking his box during the Democratic primary.

Biden’s — and the Democratic Party’s — response to Israel’s military action in Gaza changed his view.

“In October, when everything started, that's when I really told myself, ‘You can't put this off anymore. You have to actually learn about this now,’” he said. “And I think that radicalized me even more, seeing how bound up everyone's liberation is, seeing the systems at play that are preventing that collective liberation.”

For Vargas, however, it doesn’t matter who is at the top of the Democratic Party’s ballot. His expectation of any candidate remains the same.

“I'm sure that the Democratic Party might feel that Kamala is maybe a more charismatic or maybe more appealing candidate, but for us, we've always run against whoever is in office — whether it's Democrat or Republican,” he said.

“We can't simply go back and say to hundreds of thousands of Arab Americans or Palestinian Americans whose families are being killed by U.S. bombs that they should somehow be responsible for saving the Democratic Party.”

Fear Of Losing the White House

Despite the strong passion from those involved in the anti-Biden movements, they ultimately remain relatively niche causes that draw dissent from mainstream Democrats.

The criticism that any vote against the Democratic Party is a vote for Donald Trump is common among the Uncommitted Movement’s opposition. Pennsylvania’s Democratic Sen. John Fetterman is an outspoken critic of the Abandon Biden movement.

“That whole Abandon Biden thing — that’s the dumbest shit I’ve ever heard,” he told Fox News’ Shannon Bream on June 30. “If you are more inclined to vote for a Democrat or be a Democrat, [and] if you’re willing to walk away from Joe Biden — you’re, by defecting, helping Trump.”

Some who fought for the uncommitted movements in the primary ultimately agree Trump is a worse option, and that it is dangerous to help his candidacy.

“What we are up against in November is a really dangerous candidate in Donald Trump, who will do immense harm to our communities and is a real existential threat to our democracy,” Elianne Farhat, an organizer with Uncommitted Minnesota and the executive director at TakeAction Minnesota, told the Seattle Times.

Hudhayfah Ahmad said if the movement leads to Trump getting elected, so be it.

“Hopefully, we serve to be an inspiration for other minority communities within the United States,” he said. “We don't need to keep lesser-evil voting every election, we can start taking a stand and making our voices heard and saying, ‘we want this.’”

Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota openly opposed Biden’s pro-Israel policies. She and Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ayanna Pressley, two other members of “The Squad” — young female progressive Democrats elected to the House of Representatives in 2018 — have since endorsed Harris’ candidacy.

Rep. Rashida Tlaib, a harsh critic of Biden and the fourth original member of The Squad, has not endorsed Harris and continues to call for a permanent ceasefire.

Despite Biden making way for Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket — after she won endorsements from most mainstream Democrats and claimed the nomination to secure enough delegates in the virtual roll call — the Uncommitted Movement and Abandon Biden have remained headstrong with their messaging.

“We use this moment to stay focused, to stay disciplined and united in our voices, and united in our efforts to push for a more just, a more humane approach to our country's policy towards Palestine and Israel,” Alawieh said. “We push to save lives and convince our leaders to stop perpetuating the foreign policy that is funding the killing of our families.”

As Harris’ vice presidential pick, Walz is one of few Democrats to speak about the Uncommitted Movement during the primaries and VP vetting process.

In a July 23 PBS NewsHour interview, Walz was asked if Harris needs to change her message on the war in Gaza, to win back the nearly 46,000 people who voted for "Uncommitted," rather than for President Biden in the Minnesota primary election.

“Look, those folks express their opinion,” he said. “And I'm proud to be part of a party that doesn't wear the same red hats and bow down and kneel to one guy. They're frustrated by this. I think there's a golden opportunity to recognize we need a two-state solution, that the atrocities of October 7 are painful and they're real, and Israel's right to defend itself is real. But, also, the situation in Gaza is intolerable."

For many voters who still claim they are uncommitted, Halah Ahmad said it comes down to not wanting to choose between “bans or bombs.”

“At the end of the day, the U.S. electorate and many voters of conscience have done everything possible to make themselves heard, and it's the job of elections to listen,” she said.

“For the Democratic Party, they have to ask themselves: ‘How much are they willing to sacrifice for a genocide? To maintain a genocide?’”

Signs lean against fence posts, available for demonstrators to grab.

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