Rebecca Liu decides to go home. For most students, returning home for the holidays is a given, but for her and many Chinese students, it's not that simple.
As the year draws to a close, returning home for the holidays is the biggest expectation of students during the end-of-term season. However, for Rebecca Liu and her Chinese classmates, going home is a distant concept. Liu is a Chinese graduate student at Carnegie Mellon University. Due to the pandemic, the tension in U.S.-China relations resulting in a shortage of direct flights and visa restrictions, Liu hasn't been able to go home for four years.
Although in November, after the meeting of the heads of China and the United States in San Francisco and consultations on resuming flights, two more carriers and three new routes were added to the China-U.S. flights, there is still a significant distance from returning to the pre-pandemic level.
Pandemic: Drastic Reduction in Flights
The initial restrictions stemmed from China's strict control over the pandemic. In March 2020, as the situation within China started to stabilize but COVID-19 began to spread globally, the Civil Aviation Administration of China announced that, starting from the week of Mar. 12, airlines could only reduce and not increase flights: each airline from each country was allowed to maintain only one route per week.
Over the next three years, direct flights between China and the U.S. became extremely scarce, with one-way economy tickets sometimes exceeding $4,000. Only four Chinese airlines and three U.S. airlines were permitted to operate U.S.-China routes. Students had to resort to buying overpriced tickets from scalpers, often paying an additional $1,000, with no guarantee of ticket authenticity.
"Even if you manage to buy tickets from scalpers at a high price, the quarantine policies and 'circuit breaker' measures made going home virtually impossible," Liu said. China enacted an entry quarantine policy in March 2020. Initially, it called for 14 days of quarantine, but with the emergence of various strains, it gradually extended to 14 days of centralized quarantine plus 14 days of home quarantine. Beijing, being the capital where Liu's family resides, had even stricter pandemic control measures.
In early 2022, due to the increase in imported cases from abroad, China further strengthened its quarantine measures for incoming travelers.For students like Liu with families in Beijing, according to Chinese quarantine policies, it took at least 21 days after landing in China to reach home and 28 days to be able to leave the house.
This situation continued until Jan. 8, 2023, when the National Health Commission of China announced the cancellation of entry quarantines.
Slow Recovery and the Long Journey of Layovers
China's international flights rapidly resumed. Six months later, over 120 weekly flights operated on the China-Australia route, with round-trip fares dropping below $300. However, the trans-Pacific U.S.-China route was not as fortunate. Direct flights remained scarce, and students unable to afford the high prices had to opt for transatlantic stopovers.
Rui Wang, a freshman at USC from Nanjing, China, chose to fly with Turkish Airlines in August to save money. He flew from Shanghai Pudong Airport to Istanbul, then onward to Los Angeles.
"I never want to go through that again," Wang said. "After hours of flying, sitting on hard benches at Istanbul Airport for a few hours, then another long flight, followed by a three-hour queue at U.S. CBP was a nightmare. It took me nearly a week to recover. It was also my first time traveling abroad alone, and I was very anxious throughout."
At that time, this route cost about $1,500 one-way, while direct flights were double the price.
"We have been continuously submitting route applications to the U.S. Department of Transportation, but due to U.S. aviation restrictions, the recovery of Xiamen Airlines' China-U.S. routes has been slow," said Yongjian Cai, manager of the Xiamen Airlines Los Angeles office.
Xiamen Airlines was the only Chinese carrier, apart from the three national airlines, approved to operate U.S.-China routes during the pandemic. In March 2020, when the Civil Aviation Administration of China announced flight controls, Xiamen Airlines maintained its North American routes and was authorized to operate one weekly MF830 flight from Los Angeles to Xiamen Gaoqi during the pandemic.
Other U.S.-China route operators, like Hainan Airlines and Sichuan Airlines, which had already temporarily suspended U.S. routes at the time, never received route approval in the subsequent three years.
According to applications provided by the U.S. Department of Transportation, the six Chinese carriers operating U.S.-China routes (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Xiamen Airlines, Hainan Airlines, Sichuan Airlines) applied for over 150 routes this year, but none were approved.
The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in early 2022 cast a shadow over the recovery of trans-Pacific intercontinental flights. Due to mutual sanctions by the U.S. against Russia, Russian aircraft were prohibited from entering U.S. airspace, and U.S. aircraft couldn't use Russian airspace. This meant the "Polar routes" were no longer viable.
The shortest route from the U.S. to Asia isn't a straight line on the map. Due to the Earth's curvature, the shortest path is a "great circle route" — northward along the U.S. West Coast, crossing the Bering Strait from Alaska, through Russia's Far East, into Heilongjiang Province, China. However, due to airspace restrictions, all U.S. carriers had to detour via the Aleutian Islands and Japan, adding nearly two hours to flights from the U.S. East Coast to China.
The U.S. Department of Transportation noted in a June 2023 order that this was unfair competition for U.S. carriers. After several rounds of U.S.-China aviation rights negotiations, the result was that the U.S. Department of Transportation allowed Chinese carriers to operate an equal number of flights as U.S. carriers, based on the principle of reciprocity. However, the additional flights were not permitted to pass through Russian airspace.
Select a route:
Route of MF830 Using/Avoiding Russia Airspace
Despite this, recovery of U.S.-CHina flights remained slow, as U.S. airlines did not submit more route applications. American Airlines, United Airlines, and Delta Air Lines did not respond to requests for comments on this matter.
However, reports indicate that U.S. carriers, facing robust demand on transatlantic routes and shortages of capacity and personnel, along with the need to circumvent Russian airspace for Asian routes, are less motivated to resume U.S.- China flights. This detour not only means competing with airlines from countries like China and India that haven't sanctioned Russia and thus have lower costs, but also requires more crew members and longer aircraft turnaround times due to extended flight durations.
Throughout the summer of 2023, there were only 28 weekly flights between the U.S. and China. In contrast, in 2019, this number was 165 — only about one-sixth of the pre-pandemic level.
Visa Delay
"Although some direct flights between China and the U.S. have resumed, and it's possible to transfer in Europe, obtaining a U.S. visa has become the main restriction for me," Liu said.
Generally speaking, when an F-1 student visa expires, one simply needs to return home to renew it, and the typical processing time is only a week. However, the increasingly strict visa reviews by the U.S. for Chinese students have obstructed many from reuniting with their families.
The U.S. began tightening visa restrictions on Chinese students during the Trump administration, especially for students in STEM fields. The most notable ban was Proclamation 10043, signed by Donald Trump, which directly prohibited students from a list of Chinese universities from obtaining F-category study visas and J-category scholar visas.
“The major difficulty is the administrative processing of unknown duration, commonly referred to as ‘check’,” As a student major in Artificial Intelligence, Liu is quite worried about the processing time of her visa application, “Essentially, almost all students from STEM majors will encounter this process, which can range from a few weeks to half a year, even if you have all the necessary documents in order. All Chinese students in our major have been ‘checked,’ with the process lasting around two months for everyone. Meanwhile, most STEM students receive an F-1 visa with a validity of only one year—whereas typically, an F-1 visa lasts for five years.”
Liu’s F-1 visa is expired。She is set to graduate with her master’s degree and start working by the end of this year, but the issue of renewing her visa has become her biggest concern. “The company requires me to provide a start date, but if I return home to renew my visa, there’s no way to guarantee the timing.”
If the visa renewal takes too long, students might even lose their eligibility to work. “If the ‘check’ takes longer, exceeding the grace period, then not only does the company’s offer become invalid, but the Optional Practical Training (OPT) eligibility is also voided. It would then be impossible to return to the U.S.,” Liu said.
Optional Practical Training (OPT) allows international students who have studied at U.S. universities to have work eligibility for 1-3 years after graduation. During the OPT period, even though the students have already graduated, they still maintain their F-1 student status. If they need to re-enter the U.S., they must hold a valid F-1 visa.
There are strict regulations on the duration of unemployment for students under OPT. Students must start working within 60 days after graduation; otherwise, their eligibility automatically expires. However, if a student is waiting outside the U.S. for visa approval, even if they have already received a job offer, this waiting time still counts towards the 60 days.
Even if students are considering employment, the prolonged waiting period of several months can severely impact their studies. After the U.S. recovered from the COVID pandemic, universities gradually stopped accepting remote classes via Zoom for students, and prolonged absences may lead to students being asked to take a leave of absence. For example, at USC, students who are more than one week late are asked to defer their attendance to the next semester. Furthermore, for students who need laboratory research, remote learning means they cannot conduct experiments in person.
Liu’s parents obtained U.S. visas, so they could visit her. Liu said, “My parents provided a lot of documents at the time, including proof of assets, proof of income, etc., to show that they had no intention of immigrating.”
However, not all students and their families are so fortunate. In 2021, the U.S. visa rejection rate for Chinese citizens for tourist visas was close to 80 percent. Even after the easing of the pandemic and the U.S.-China visa disputes, the rejection rate still exceeded 30 percent.
On the Chinese social media platform Xiaohongshu, there have been hundreds of posts this year by Chinese students studying in the U.S. sharing their parents’ visa rejection experiences. If a student’s parents don’t have much travel experience in developed countries or substantial financial proof, obtaining a visa is not easy, some posts say.
In addition, the current waiting time for processing tourist visas at the U.S. consulates in China is astonishingly long. At the U.S. Consulate in Guangzhou, it currently takes 196 days just to get an appointment for an interview, and that’s just the beginning— a significant proportion of Chinese citizens even for tourist visas encounter “administrative processing.”
Shindo Chen, a Chinese Ph.D. candidate at UC Riverside, graduated from Harbin Institute of Technology. Due to the restrictions of Proclamation 10043, he couldn't obtain a U.S. visa and had to stay in the U.S. until completing his studies.
"It's terrifying. When you've legitimately enrolled in a U.S. school and after a year, you're suddenly told that because you studied at an institution on a certain list, you're suspected of being a 'spy.' And you must choose between completing your studies and going home, because if you leave, you can't return to the U.S.," said Chen.
Chen also questioned the rationale behind this list: "I'm puzzled. I was just an undergraduate attending classes, and these schools are simply technical institutions in China with higher admission scores. Why would it assume I have ties to the military? And the logic behind the U.S.'s sanction list, both in adding and removing entities, seems unfounded."
Chen referred to the November 16 removal of The Chinese Ministry of Public Security's Institute of Forensic Science from the U.S. sanction list following a fentanyl cooperation agreement between Biden and Xi. "An institution overnight is no longer a 'national security' threat."
To meet his family, he turned his attention to Saipan in The Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands.
Will Saipan Island become a place of reunion?
The Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands has strongly demanded the restoration of flights to China.
This U.S. territory, located about 4,000 miles west of Hawaii, is actually closer to East Asia than it is to the U.S. mainland. Saipan Island is the most famous tourist destination in the commonwealth. Between 2015 and 2020, Chinese tourists made up 40% of all visitors. The CNMI has submitted an application to the U.S. Department of Transportation, hoping that Chinese tourists can return to the scenic islands.
However, this initiative, aimed primarily at attracting tourists and boosting the economy, might inadvertently provide a new family reunion solution for Chinese students stranded in the U.S. due to visa issues.
The CNMI are the only U.S. territory with visa-free entry for Chinese citizens. When students cannot leave the U.S. due to visa reasons, and their families cannot obtain U.S. visas either, these exceptional Pacific islands become one of the few possible places for them to meet. Yet currently, flights between China and the Northern Mariana Islands are suspended.
A China Eastern Airlines A330 Intercontinental Jet
Flights between the CNMI and China are still included in the total limit for China-U.S. flights. With a shortage of flights on the U.S. mainland, both Chinese and U.S. airlines currently have no plans to resume services to Saipan.
But once the flights are resumed, Saipan Island will become the only destination where Chinese students in the U.S. and their family members can arrive without applying for a visa. Currently, Chinese students with expired visas who wish to meet their families can travel to Canada, Mexico or an adjacent island through the Automatic Visa Revalidation Program.
However, obtaining visas for these regions in China is not necessarily simpler than getting a U.S. visa. At the same time, even if the student’s status in the U.S. is still legal, meaning their I-20 and I-94 forms are still valid, the decision to allow re-entry is still made by U.S. Customs and Border Protection officers, and there is uncertainty that they might not be allowed to return.
However, Saipan is a U.S. territory so this issue doesn’t exist when traveling there. The U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement website indicates that students don’t need a valid visa to visit Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, or the Northern Mariana Islands unless their route passes outside of U.S. territories.
Jason Givens, a CBP Press officer, wrote “Every situation is unique, but since Saipan is a U.S. commonwealth, the student would be ‘in status’ when traveling and returning to the mainland if the student never leaves U.S. territory. Although it might not be required, I recommend the student carry the expired F-1 visa and valid I-20 in case proof is requested.”
Since Oct. 3, 2019, the CNMI has tightened visa-free restrictions for Chinese nationals. If one has a record of being refused a U.S. visa, they cannot enjoy the visa-free entry policy. This means that student families need to assess their odds and make a choice between taking the risk of applying for a U.S. visa and reuniting in Saipan.
As Givens mentioned, students cannot leave U.S. territory throughout the journey. To meet this requirement, the only available option is to fly from the U.S. mainland to Hawaii, then take UA201 from Honolulu to Guam, transfer to UA174 to Saipan and then return the same way.
Whether this plan can proceed mainly depends on whether the U.S. DOT approves the CNMI’s request. “The economic repercussions CNMI is enduring from the restrictions on Chinese travel go beyond transportation and strike at the heart of the CNMI’s ability to fund and provide basic services to its citizens,” wrote the CNMI Ports Authority.
After the dual blows of hurricanes and the pandemic, the finances of the CNMI, which is supported by the tourism industry, are in an extremely tight situation. The CNMI Ports Authority gave an example: earlier this year, the CNMI was forced to limit, reduce and suspend Medicaid services due to financial constraints and required cost-cutting measures.
The CNMI Ports Authority believes that since no U.S. airlines are interested in opening routes from Saipan to China, the U.S.-China flight restriction not only fails to protect American interests on the China-to-Saipan route but also causes significant economic harm thereby infringing on the interests of the CNMI residents who are U.S. citizens.
Chen, with his background in engineering, believes his parents are likely to be denied U.S. visas, so he's considering meeting them in Saipan once direct flights from China resume. Although UA201 flights are currently expensive, sometimes there are options to redeem with points.
Future
For some other Chinese students, family reunions are paramount. Kai Hoh graduated from Shanghai Jiao Tong University in industrial engineering in 2020 and was admitted to Columbia University. After U.S. schools resumed teaching, he spent a lot on tickets to New York, but his visa was checked for six months, forcing him to defer for another year.
"Even though I received some good job offers in the U.S. after graduation, I still face various problems," Hoh said. "Also, Xiamen Airlines' New York-Fuzhou route hasn't resumed, so it still takes me about five days to get home, plus the visa might be 'checked' again, making it hard to get such a long break."
He chose to return to China for work after graduating from Columbia, despite better career prospects and salaries in the U.S. "Family is something I can't let go of."
"The issues with visas and work status indeed trouble the career paths of international students," said Samuel Roberts, a USC program manager and career director. He admits that students need to consider whether employers are willing to provide visa and work status sponsorship, especially in STEM programs. Also, for students in humanities and arts, the potential risk of having to leave after only one year of OPT makes employers more hesitant, "However, in the design of our programs for international students, we also take into account the new employment situation, striving to enable them to adapt to the needs of the global market, so that they can achieve career success in their own countries or in other countries as well."
Following the San Francisco U.S.-China leaders meeting at APEC, both sides announced efforts to promote the resumption of U.S.-China flights and simplify the visa process.
Currently operating air routes between the United States and China
"The feeling of going home is irreplaceable," Rebecca Liu said. "Even though I'll face many troubles. But it's been four years; I miss my elderly family and my dog. How many more four years do I have to spend with them?"
